The growth of transport cector CO2 emissions and underlying factors in Latin America and the Caribbean

This study examines the factors responsible for the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide emissions in 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries during 1980-2005 by decomposing the emissions growth into components associated with changes in fuel mix, modal shift, and economic growth, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. The key finding of the study is that economic growth and the changes in transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector carbon dioxide emissions growth in the countries considered. The results imply that fiscal policy instruments - such as subsidies to clean fuels and clean vehicles - would be more effective in reducing emissions in countries where the economic activity effect is the primary driver for transport sector carbon dioxide emissions growth. By contrast, regulatory policy instruments - such as vehicle efficiency standards and vehicle occupancy standards - would be more effective in countries where the transportation energy intensity effect is the main driver of carbon dioxide emissions growth. Both fiscal and regulatory policy instruments would be useful in countries where both economic activity and transportation energy intensity effects are responsible for driving transport sector carbon dioxide emissions growth.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Energy Production and Transportation,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment

Biofuels : markets, targets and impacts

This paper reviews recent developments in biofuel markets and their economic, social and environmental impacts. Several countries have introduced mandates and targets for biofuel expansion. Production, international trade and investment have increased sharply in the past few years. However, several existing studies have blamed biofuels as one of the key factors behind the 2007-2008 global food crisis, although the magnitudes of impacts in these studies vary widely depending on the underlying assumptions and structure of the models. Existing studies also have huge disparitiesin the magnitude of long-term impacts of biofuels on food prices and supply; studies that model only the agricultural sector show higher impacts, whereas studies that model the entire economy show relatively lower impacts. In terms of climate change mitigation impacts, there exists a consensus that current biofuels lead to greenhouse gas mitigation only when greenhouse gas emissions related to land-use change are not counted. If conversion of carbon rich forest land to crop land is not avoided, the resulting greenhouse gas release would mean that biofuels would not reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions until several years had passed. Overall, results from most of the existing literature do not favor diversion of food for large-scale production of biofuels, although regulated production of biofuels in countries with surplus land and a strong biofuel industry are not ruled out. Developments in second generation biofuels offer some hope, yet they still compete with food supply through land use and are currently constrained by a number of technical and economic barriers.Energy Production and Transportation,Renewable Energy,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Food&Beverage Industry,Environmental Economics&Policies

Why have CO2 emissions increased in the transport sector in Asia ? underlying factors and policy options

Rapidly increasing emissions of carbon dioxide from the transport sector, particularly in urban areas, is a major challenge to sustainable development in developing countries. This study analyzes the factors responsible for transport sector CO2 emissions growth in selected developing Asian countries during 1980-2005. The analysis splits the annual emissions growth into components representing economic development; population growth; shifts in transportation modes; and changes in fuel mix, emission coefficients, and transportation energy intensity. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO2 emissions growth, particularly various fiscal and regulatory policy instruments. The study finds that of the six factors considered, three - economic development, population growth, and transportation energy intensity - are responsible for driving up transport sector CO2 emissions in Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Vietnam. In contrast, only economic development and population growth are responsible in the case of China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. CO2 emissions exhibit a downward trend in Mongolia due to decreasing transportation energy intensity. The study also finds that some existing policy instruments help reduce transport sector CO2 emissions, although they were not necessarily targeted for this purpose when introduced.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Economics,Transport and Environment

Expansion of the crop ontology by adding cassava trait ontology

Poster presented at CGIAR Generation Challenge Programme, General Research Meeting. Hyderabad (India), 21-25 Sep 201

Climate change amplifies plant invasion hotspots in Nepal

Aim Climate change has increased the risk of biological invasions, particularly by increasing the climatically suitable regions for invasive alien species. The distribution of many native and invasive species has been predicted to change under future climate. We performed species distribution modelling of invasive alien plants (IAPs) to identify hotspots under current and future climate scenarios in Nepal, a country ranked among the most vulnerable countries to biological invasions and climate change in the world. Location Nepal. Methods We predicted climatically suitable niches of 24 out of the total 26 reported IAPs in Nepal under current and future climate (2050 for RCP 6.0) using an ensemble of species distribution models. We also conducted hotspot analysis to highlight the geographic hotspots for IAPs in different climatic zones, land cover, ecoregions, physiography and federal states. Results Under future climate, climatically suitable regions for 75% of IAPs will expand in contrast to a contraction of the climatically suitable regions for the remaining 25% of the IAPs. A high proportion of the modelled suitable niches of IAPs occurred on agricultural lands followed by forests. In aggregation, both extent and intensity (invasion hotspots) of the climatically suitable regions for IAPs will increase in Nepal under future climate scenarios. The invasion hotspots will expand towards the high‐elevation mountainous regions. In these regions, land use is rapidly transforming due to the development of infrastructure and expansion of tourism and trade. Main conclusions Negative impacts on livelihood, biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as economic loss caused by IAPs in the future, may be amplified if preventive and control measures are not immediately initiated. Therefore, the management of IAPs in Nepal should account for the vulnerability of climate change‐induced biological invasions into new areas, primarily in the mountains

World oil price and biofuels : a general equilibrium analysis

The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels. However, this issue has not been fully investigated yet in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4 percent in 2020 from 2.4 percent in 2009. A doubling of oil price in 2020 from its baseline level, or a 230 percent increase from the 2009 level, would increase the global biofuel penetration in 2020 to 12.6 percent. The penetration of biofuels is highly sensitive to the substitution possibility between biofuels and their fossil fuel counterparts. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through diversion of food commodities and cropland toward the production of biofuels.Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Economics,Markets and Market Access,Renewable Energy,Food&Beverage Industry

Behaviour of RC beam-column connections retrofitted with FRP strips

University of Technology, Sydney. Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology.Reinforced concrete (RC) buildings designed prior to the implementation of seismic design codes were largely designed without structural details required for satisfactory seismic performance. These buildings are therefore more susceptible to damage in case of an earthquake and hence may require strengthening to meet current design standards. For instance, the majority of buildings that may require strengthening in Australia are those designed prior to the implementation of Australia’s first earthquake design standard in 1979. Non-seismic load designed RC framed structures may possess several inherent weaknesses when subjected to a seismic attack. One major design deficiency is inadequate or no transverse reinforcement (otherwise known as stirrups) in the joint region of the RC beam-column connections (herein referred to as connections) which may lead to joint shear failure in a seismic attack. It is important here to establish that a joint refers to the intersecting region of the column/s and beam/s while a connection refers to the joint region plus surrounding beam/s and column/s. Another inadequacy is the practice of not anchoring the bottom beam longitudinal bars which may lead to bar pull-out due to load reversal in the case of a seismic attack. The proportioning of the beam and column elements framing into the connection region may lead to the undesirable formation of a strong-beam-weak-column mechanism. In addition, plastic hinging may form in the beam or column adjacent to the joint region thus compromising the strength and integrity of the joint. Past earthquakes such as El Asnam (1980), Mexico (1985), San Salvador (1986), Loma Prieta (1989) and Turkey (1999) have shown the vulnerability of RC framed structures with inherent non-seismic load designed weaknesses to catastrophically collapse due to connection failure. The proper strengthening of connections with such inherent weaknesses is in urgent need in order to ensure the safe performance of RC connections under seismic attack. Over the past decade or so, fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) composites have emerged as a viable solution for strengthening structures due to their superiority in strength-to- weight ratio, ease of handling and forming into shapes, and corrosion resistance whencompared with more traditional construction materials such as steel. Many experimental, analytical and numerical studies have been conducted on the strengthening of RC beams, columns, slabs and walls as well as various other structural elements with FRP. Many field applications have also been reported around the world. Significantly less research and field applications by comparison have been reported on the strengthening of RC connections with FRP composites. Experimental studies on FRP-strengthened exterior and interior connections have demonstrated the ability of externally bonded FRP to rectify the inherent weakness of non-seismic load designed RC connections by enhancing the joint shear capacity, in addition to enhancing the flexural capacity and to also relocate the possible formation of plastic hinges in the beam away from the joint region, as well as to promote a strong- column-weak-beam failure mechanism. Most of these experimental studies, while extremely useful, have been concerned with the behaviour of the strengthened connection as a whole with less attention paid to the behaviour of the FRP strengthening itself. In addition, the distinct lack of numerical simulations and analytical models, by comparison, are hindering better understanding and the more widespread rational design of FRP-strengthened for RC connections. The research reported in this dissertation focuses on the commonly occurring case of a shear strength deficient connection. Such connections are retrofitted or repaired with FRP strips however from herein such application of FRP will collectively be referred to as strengthening. The key aims of this project are to (i) experimentally observe and quantify the behaviour of FRP strengthening in FRP-strengthened connections, (ii) accurately simulate the experimental results produced in aim (i) using finite elements and identify the strengths and weakness of such numerical modelling, (iii) perform parametric studies with the calibrated numerical models, (iv) develop an analytical model which can rationally and reliably predict the behaviour of the FRP-strengthened connections, and (v) formulate a design approach which can be easily incorporated into future versions of existing FRP-strengthening design guidelines as well as new guidelines. Initially a state-of-the-art review is conducted on the current state of knowledge pertaining to FRP-strengthened RC connections. Existing research is also systematically categorised for ease of reference and comparison and for identifying the various issues still requiring research attention. The experimental program then forms the heart of the project and considers the shear strengthening of virgin connections as well as the repair of damaged connections. A strength hierarchy dictating shear failure in the joint region (even after application of the FRP) is deliberately chosen in order to assess the effectiveness and limitation of the FRP strengthening. All test specimens are extensively instrumented and the majority of connections are tested under mono tonic load which greatly enhances the ability to effectively monitor the behaviour of the FRP as well as the cracking behaviour of the connection. Two connections are also tested under cyclic loading in order to assess the energy absorption characteristics of the strengthening schemes. Finite element models are developed for plain (RC connection without any FRP strengthening) and FRP-strengthened RC connections which are then used to perform parametric studies to analyse various parameters affecting the behaviour of the connections such as amount of FRP, location of the FRP strips and strength of concrete. Also, a simple analytical model is presented based on the finding of the tests which can accurately estimate the contribution of the FRP strengthening to the connection shear strength. Finally, recommendations are made for design of FRP strengthening of shear deficient RC connections and future research needs are identified